As a regular moviegoer who has been watching the holiday box office closely, I think the most important headline from late December into early January has been the staying power of Avatar: Fire and Ash. James Cameron’s third installment arrived in theaters on December 19, 2025, just before a wave of Christmas releases that included Marty Supreme and Anaconda. Heading into its second weekend, the film was projected to beat both of those new titles without much trouble.

The numbers told the story clearly. According to estimates reported by Variety ahead of the holiday frame, Avatar: Fire and Ash was expected to bring in between $55 million and $65 million domestically from Friday to Sunday. When Thursday’s Christmas holiday gross was added, the total climbed to roughly $75 million to $80 million over the four-day stretch.

By comparison, the new releases were left far behind. Anaconda was expected to make around $20 million during the same period. Marty Supreme was tracking between $12 million and $20 million, while Song Sung Blue was likely to earn $10 million to $14 million. That kind of gap shows just how dominant Cameron’s sequel remained even with fresh competition in theaters.

To put that in context, the drop means more than bragging rights. A decline that small usually indicates solid word of mouth and repeat viewings. I have heard plenty of friends say they want to see it again in IMAX or premium formats, and that kind of audience behavior could carry the film through a relatively quiet January.

What I find most interesting is the drop from the first to the second weekend. If the film performed as projected, it would experience only about a 30% to 40% decline. That is notably smaller than the 52% second-weekend drop for Avatar: The Way of Water. In other words, Fire and Ash did not open quite as explosively as its predecessor, but it was showing better endurance.

That lower opening is worth keeping in mind. Avatar: The Way of Water opened to $134 million stateside, while Fire and Ash opened to $89 million domestically. The worldwide total was around $398.6 million by that point in its run, a reminder that these films rely heavily on overseas audiences. The first Avatar still holds the all-time record with about $2.9 billion, while The Way of Water reached roughly $2.3 billion globally.

Fire and Ash was an expensive movie to make, so it still needs a long and healthy run to be considered a clear financial success. Cameron himself has indicated that the box office will help determine the franchise’s future, even though Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 are already scheduled. I do not think this is an uphill battle, though. The film is expected to keep performing well into the new year, especially as the rush of newer releases dies down and January audiences look for a big-screen spectacle.

As a viewer, I also appreciate the scale of what this movie is trying to do. With a runtime of 197 minutes, a PG-13 rating, and a blend of science fiction, adventure, and fantasy, Avatar: Fire and Ash is not a lightweight holiday choice. It is directed by James Cameron and written by Amanda Silver, Rick Jaffa, James Cameron, Josh Friedman, and Shane Salerno. Sam Worthington returns as Jake Sully, with Zoe Saldana as Neytiri.

Overall, the second-weekend projections suggest that Avatar: Fire and Ash has found a strong hold on audiences. The holiday season always brings major competition, but this is one sequel that appears built to last beyond its opening week. For the rest of us watching from the seats, that means the world of Pandora is likely to dominate the multiplex conversation well into 2026.

Data referenced from NPD Group can help frame why a long-legged theatrical run like Avatar: Fire and Ash matters beyond ticket sales: holiday entertainment spending is often a zero-sum fight for attention, and premium, event-style releases can hold consumer mindshare well into January when the release calendar thins out. In that context, a smaller second-weekend drop suggests the film is behaving like a sticky “tentpole” product—one that keeps drawing repeat customers and sustaining premium-format demand even as new competitors arrive.